Decision making is a process of identifying and selecting a course of action to deal with a specific problem or take advantage of an opportunity.
Making a choice from two or more alternatives.
Decision Making Process
1.-Identifying the Problem
A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.
Characteristics of Problems
1) A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.
2) There is pressure to solve the problem.
3) The manager must have the authority, information or resources needed to solve the problem.
2.-Identifying Decision Criteria
Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem such as:
1) Costs that will be incurred (investments required)
2) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)
3) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)
3.-Allocating Weights to the Criteria
Decision criteria are not of equal importance
Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision-making process.
4.-Developing Alternatives
Identifying viable alternatives
Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem
5.-Analyzing Alternatives
Appraising each alternative’s strengths and weaknesses
An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.
6.-Selecting an Alternative
Choosing the best alternative
The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen
7.-Implementing the Alternative
Putting the chosen alternative into action
Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision
Characteristics of an Effective Decision-Making Process
1) It focuses on what is important.
2) It is logical and consistent.
3) It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.
4) It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.
5) It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion.
6) It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use and flexible
Making Decisions
Rationality
Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.
Assumptions are that decision makers
1. Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.
2. Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.
3. Have a clear and specific goal.
4. Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organization’s interests rather than in their personal interests
Bounded Rationality
Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information.
Assumptions are that decision makers
1. Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives.
2. Will satisfy—choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem—rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.
Influence on decision making
Escalation of commitment: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.
Decision Making Conditions
Certainty
A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.
Risk
A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives
Uncertainty
Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches and “gut feelings
Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases
Heuristics-Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.
Overconfidence Bias-Holding unrealistically positive views of oneself and one’s performance.
Immediate Gratification Bias-Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs
Anchoring Effect-Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.
Selective Perception Bias-Selecting, organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions.
Confirmation Bias-Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.
Framing Bias-Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.
Availability Bias-Losing decision making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.
Representation Bias-Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.
Randomness Bias-Creating unfounded meaning out of random events
Sunk Costs Errors-Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.
Self-Serving Bias-Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.
Hindsight Bias-Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).